What the experts say on interest rate rises

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For November’s interest rate update, we decided to take a look at what the experts from around the world of finance have been saying about the chances of rates going up.

There has previously been a lot of talk about a potential rate rise at the end of 2014, with many people now confident it will be the first quarter of 2015 at the earliest, that rates rise. Even more analysts are now looking further into the future on interest rates, with changing market conditions affecting the thinking all of the time.

Remember, if you are currently on a tracker or variable rate mortgage then a change in interest rates can impact your monthly payments, so planning for a potential rise and investigating a remortgage if appropriate is important.

Here’s what the experts currently think about likely rate rises:

Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

The MPC ultimately decides what will happen to interest rates and, at several of their last meetings, two of the nine man panel have voted for a rise. If it were down to Mr Weale and Mr McCafferty, interest rates would rise tomorrow!

Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Carney also sits on the MPC and has consistently discussed the need to see wages rise before, or in line with, an increase in interest rates. Recently, Mr Carney has indicated that he doesn’t see rates rising before the General Election in May 2015.

Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight

Analysing the Prime Minister’s latest comments on interest rates, Mr Archer believes that an interest rate rise is likely to be put off until Autumn 2015, or even beyond, giving mortgage holders more time to prepare.

Nina Skero, Economist at CEBR

CEBR feel even more confident about a late 2015 prediction, pinpointing the exact date as being November 2015.

Alan Clarke, Strategist at Scotiabank

Mr Clarke, like many observers, thinks that falling inflation will force the MPC to keep interest rates low. With clothing and gas and electricity seeing low rises this winter compared to last year, he thinks this will mean low inflation and the Bank of England focusing on addressing that, rather than interest rates, in early 2015.

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